California has always exported people. What is different about 2026 is who is leaving, and why.
The 2026 Billionaire Tax Act, a ballot initiative backed by the Service Employees International Union, has submitted more than 1.5 million signatures, well above the 875,000 required, and is expected to appear on the November ballot pending Secretary of State verification. The measure would apply a one-time 5% levy on residents with wealth above $1 billion as of Jan. 1, 2026, including unrealised gains. Critics have noted that built into the legislation is the right of the state legislature to amend its provisions, including, they argue, lowering that threshold, with a two-thirds vote, though proponents say any such change must be consistent with the act’s stated purposes.
Governor Gavin Newsom has publicly opposed the initiative. His argument is that California cannot isolate itself from 49 other states. The argument is already being tested by exits. Larry Page and a string of less prominently covered founders and executives have made moves that tax advisors and migration researchers have tracked as departures connected to the proposal. (Larry Ellison, often cited alongside Page, left California in 2020, well before the initiative was filed.) Venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya estimated, based on conversations with contacts in his billionaire network, that as much as $1 trillion in wealth had left or would leave California ahead of the vote, a figure he updated from an earlier $700 billion estimate and which was subsequently cited in a National Taxpayers Union Foundation analysis. The figure is not independently verified.
Where does that wealth go? The usual answers are Texas and Florida. But for high-net-worth buyers on the West Coast, Nevada, and specifically Las Vegas, has become the more natural destination. The flight time from Los Angeles is 45 minutes. The drive is under four hours. The state levies no income tax, no capital gains tax, and no tax on retirement income.
The migration dynamic has been building for years, and has reshaped the Las Vegas property market in ways that go well beyond tax optimisation. In 2026, luxury home closings above $1 million are running nearly 16% ahead of the same period in 2025, with 469 closings recorded in the year to date and 7 transactions above $10 million already on record at communities including The Summit Club, MacDonald Highlands, and Ascaya.
The city those arrivals discovered is not the city it was 10 years ago. Las Vegas has developed a dining scene described by food writers as genuinely world-class. The Smith Center brought performing arts infrastructure. The Golden Knights and the Raiders brought professional sport. Schools, hospitals, and cultural institutions have followed inbound wealth. The conditions that made Las Vegas only a tax haven have shifted.
For California’s wealthy residents now calculating their options ahead of November, the question is less about whether to leave and more about what they are actually moving toward. The 2026 Billionaire Tax Act has put a number on the cost of staying. What that number has done, for tens of thousands of buyers who preceded the current ballot drama, is introduce them to a city they had no intention of calling home, and kept them there anyway.
The vote is scheduled for November. The exits are already well underway.
Written in partnership with Tom White
